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GOP Uncertainty For 2024

The GOP’s political troubles has been unfolding slowly, but unmistakably mounting, starting even before America’s most successful, incumbent President, Donald J. Trump's loss to the weakest presidential candidate ever fielded by the Democrat party, “Basement Joe Biden,” in 2020.

Regardless of the apparent dismissal of voter fraud in the 2020 election, portrayed by FNC’s settlement with the hardware company of Venezuelan origins, Dominion, which propelled Hugo Chavez to power, and kept him there, and another anticipated settlement with the software company, Smartmatic, fact is that the Democrats, outplayed the Republicans with ballot harvesting and mail-in balloting, among other strategies.

The midterms were another colossal disappointment for Republicans, but this one had more to do with the Estrogen rage felt by millions of single—and many married—college educated, white women, after the SCOTUS decision on abortion. Never underestimate the psychological obsession of a woman to freed herself of—terminate—a pregnancy.

To be fair, Republicans won the legal fight over abortion as Trump-appointed justices helped to ensure the reversal of Roe v. Wade. But the GOP lost a series of political battles over it afterward — a reflection that most women support abortion rights. GOP-led state legislatures have shown no signs of slowing their push to enact stricter abortion bans, suggesting continuing political backlash to come.

Then there is the very real “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” And it’s more than liberals whom are afflicted by this emotional phenomenon. There are too many Republican voters, particularly women, who have an irrational dislike of Trump. I know a couple who vote Republican straight down the ballot but will not vote Trump. When asked to explain it, they can’t.

Here is an honest recap of how we got to where we are today… It all begins with the 2018 House elections, which were a disaster for Republicans as Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats to take over the House — their largest gain since the post-Watergate election of 1974.

Then President Trump, loses re-election with Republicans blowing two runoff elections in the red state of Georgia, and losing control of the U.S. Senate. The runoffs took place a day before Trump supporters stormed the Capitol—with the assistance and encouragement of FBI informants and other agency operatives.

I will say this on that. A very serious source, with the right background and pedigree, who was there, recognized a certain appearance and conduct, of certain groups of physically fit, crew-cut haircut young men, operating in synchronizity, who often lead the mass of protesters ahead into the Capitol and then disappearing. Remember the old saying: “It’s not what you know but that which you can prove.” We will leave it there.

Fast forward to 2022 with Republicans putting high-profile election deniers on the 2022 midterm ballot in key state and federal races, only to see most of them loose otherwise winnable elections.

Then Republicans blew their chance to control the Senate by nominating too many “hard-to-elect-in-a-swing-state” Trump facsimiles. Their hopes of a big House majority were erased for the same reason, creating constant headaches for new Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

In the state of Wisconsin, Democrat-backed über liberal Janet Protasiewicz, flipped the state Supreme Court to liberals in a landslide, after leaning into her support for abortion rights. Conservatives had held it for 15 years.

Senate Republicans have been gifted a historically favorable 2024 map — BUT, so called hard-right candidates, who appeal to the GOP base again threaten to inject uncertainty into at least five winnable races.

Meanwhile, Trump is driving an agenda dominated by vengeance and victimhood, diverting Republicans from the inflation- and crime-centered messages that helped them in the midterms.

Reality check:

Trump, if anything, is stronger and more likely to win the GOP nomination than he was after the November midterms and Republicans in Congress, have rallied to Trump's defense since his indictment.

However, for all of Trump’s growing popularity among Republicans, Trump remains wildly UNPOPULAR nationally. Biden's approval rating has hovered around 42%, a dismal figure — but it is still better than Trump’s.

The bottom line: Put polls aside and your fascination with Trump and ask yourself this question: How likely does it seem that Trump will do better with persuadable voters in 2024 than his 2020 loss? It’s a rhetorical question.

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